Geopolitics and Resource Conflict: KS3 Geography

Geopolitics is the study of how geography — the location of land, resources, seas and borders — shapes political power and international relations. Resources including oil, water and minerals have driven conflict and alliances throughout history, and competition over them is intensifying as global demand grows. Understanding geopolitics means connecting place, power and people.

What is geopolitics and why does geography shape power?

The term geopolitics was coined in the late nineteenth century by Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén, but the ideas it describes are ancient: a country's physical geography profoundly influences its military capacity, economic potential and political relationships.

Consider what geography gives some countries and denies others:

• Coastline and access to the sea enables trade, naval power and fishing. Landlocked countries (like Chad, Bolivia or Afghanistan) face higher transport costs, cannot build blue-water navies, and are dependent on their neighbours for access to global markets
• Natural resources — oil, gas, coal, metal ores, fertile soil, freshwater — provide the raw material for economic and military power
• Strategic location — controlling key straits, isthmuses, mountain passes or river systems has historically determined who controls trade and movement
• Climate and disease environment — tropical disease burden, water availability and agricultural potential all influence how many people an area can support and how wealthy they can become

The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and the Oman peninsula through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes — is a perfect example. Whoever controls this strait has enormous leverage over the global oil market and the economies of every country that imports Middle Eastern oil.

Why is oil a source of geopolitical conflict?

Oil is the world's most traded commodity and the foundation of the modern global economy. Almost every aspect of modern life — transport, plastics, pharmaceuticals, food production (fertilisers and pesticides) — depends on petroleum.

The geographical distribution of oil is extremely uneven:

This distribution creates a fundamental geopolitical tension: the world's major oil consumers (USA, China, European Union, Japan) are not the same as the world's major oil producers. Countries must either control their own oil fields, make alliances with producing countries, or risk vulnerability.

Key oil-related conflicts and tensions:

• The 1990–91 Gulf War: Iraq invaded Kuwait (partly to control Kuwait's oil reserves and access to the Persian Gulf); an international coalition led by the USA expelled Iraq
• The 2003 Iraq War: While stated justifications concerned weapons of mass destruction, control of Iraq's oil reserves was widely cited as a background motivation
• US relationships with Saudi Arabia: Despite ideological differences, the USA has maintained close ties with Saudi Arabia for decades largely because of Saudi oil reserves and the kingdom's role in setting global oil prices through OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)
• Russia's use of natural gas exports as political leverage over European countries, particularly acute following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — many European nations were heavily dependent on Russian gas and had to rapidly find alternatives

Why is water increasingly a source of conflict?

Water is essential for life, agriculture and industry, yet it is distributed very unevenly across the Earth's surface. Around 97% of Earth's water is salty (oceans); the remaining 3% is fresh water, and most of that is locked in glaciers and ice caps. Only about 0.3% of Earth's fresh water is accessible in rivers, lakes and aquifers.

Water stress (when demand exceeds reliable supply) affects approximately 40% of the world's population and is projected to worsen with climate change, population growth and agricultural demand.

Rivers that cross international boundaries (called transboundary rivers) create geopolitical tension when upstream countries dam or divert water before it reaches downstream nations:

The conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile is particularly instructive. Ethiopia, one of Africa's poorest and fastest-growing countries, sees the dam as essential for electricity generation and development. Egypt depends on the Nile for approximately 95% of its freshwater supply and has historically treated the river as an Egyptian resource — a claim based on colonial-era agreements that Ethiopia never signed. The disagreement illustrates how resource conflict intersects with historical inequality and development needs.

What minerals are causing conflict in the modern world?

The energy transition — shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy — creates new resource conflicts. Electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and wind turbines require minerals including lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and rare earth elements. These minerals are geographically concentrated in ways that create new geopolitical dependencies:

China's dominance of rare earth processing — even where it does not mine the ore — gives it significant leverage in international trade disputes. In 2010, China temporarily restricted rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, demonstrating how control over strategic minerals translates to political power.

How does resource geography affect development?

Resource distribution creates both opportunities and challenges for development. The "resource curse" — discussed in development geography — describes the paradox by which countries with abundant natural resources sometimes develop more slowly than resource-poor countries.

Why the resource curse occurs:

• Oil or mineral wealth concentrates income in the hands of governments and elites
• Resource revenue reduces pressure on governments to develop other sectors of the economy or to be accountable to taxpayers
• Large resource exports make a country's currency strong, making other exports (manufactured goods, agriculture) uncompetitive — called "Dutch disease" after the Netherlands' experience following North Sea gas discoveries
• Competition to control resource revenue can fuel conflict — funding armed groups who fight over mining revenues or oil fields

Counter-examples: Norway (oil), Botswana (diamonds) and Chile (copper) have managed their resource wealth relatively well through strong institutions, sovereign wealth funds and economic diversification. The difference appears to lie primarily in the quality of governance and institutions rather than in the resources themselves.

Frequently asked questions

What does "geopolitics" actually mean in simple terms?

Geopolitics means the way in which the physical geography of the world — where countries are, what resources they have, who controls key trade routes — shapes the relationships between nations and the distribution of political power. A country with oil can use that resource to influence others; a country that controls a key strait or canal has leverage over trade. Geopolitics explains why certain pieces of land or sea routes have been fought over repeatedly through history — not because of their beauty or size but because of their strategic significance.

Could competition over water lead to major wars?

Geographers and security analysts debate this seriously. As of 2026, no large-scale international war has been fought primarily over freshwater — most water disputes have been managed through negotiation, treaties or unilateral action rather than armed conflict. However, some researchers argue that water stress has contributed to internal conflicts (the Syrian civil war that began in 2011 was preceded by a severe four-year drought that drove rural people into cities, contributing to social instability) and that interstate tensions over transboundary rivers are increasing. The UN estimates that 286 international river basins are shared by two or more countries; most are governed by treaties, but these treaties were not designed for the demands of a hotter, more populous world.

Why do some resource-rich countries remain poor?

This is the resource curse question, and it does not have a single answer. The Democratic Republic of Congo contains vast reserves of cobalt, coltan, gold and diamonds — enough to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries by resource endowment — yet it is consistently ranked among the world's poorest and most politically unstable countries. Decades of colonial exploitation (particularly under Belgian rule), Cold War intervention that prioritised anti-communist dictators over development, and ongoing conflict over control of mining revenues have combined to prevent stable institutions from developing. The minerals are valuable; the ability to extract them profitably and distribute the revenue fairly requires political institutions that DRC has consistently been denied the conditions to build. Nigeria's experience with oil — enormous revenues, persistent poverty, high inequality — tells a similar story. The resource is not the problem; the governance is.

How is climate change reshaping resource geopolitics?

Climate change is reshaping resource geopolitics in several ways simultaneously. Melting Arctic ice is opening shipping routes and making previously inaccessible oil and gas reserves reachable — and Arctic nations (Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark/Greenland, USA) are competing to assert territorial claims. Droughts are intensifying competition over freshwater in vulnerable regions. The global transition away from fossil fuels is reducing the geopolitical power of oil-exporting states while increasing the importance of countries that produce the minerals needed for renewable energy. Countries with strong renewable energy potential — sun (Saharan Africa, Middle East), wind (North Sea, North America), hydropower (central Africa, South America) — may gain geopolitical significance in a decarbonised world. Climate change is not simply an environmental issue; it is a geopolitical reshaping of who has power and why.

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