FFT target grades appear on many secondary school reports, but few parents are told what "FFT" actually means. FFT (Fischer Family Trust, now FFT Education Datalab) is a not-for-profit organisation that analyses national pupil data to estimate the GCSE grades pupils are statistically likely to achieve, based on how similar pupils performed in previous years.
What is FFT Education Datalab?
FFT Education Datalab was founded by the Fischer Family Trust, a charitable foundation, and is now an independent research and analytics organisation used by the majority of secondary schools, local authorities, and academy trusts in England and Wales. Schools pay a subscription to access FFT's data services, which include:
- Estimates of likely GCSE grades for each pupil, calculated from prior attainment data (typically Key Stage 2 SATs results from the end of primary school)
- Progress and attainment dashboards that allow schools to compare themselves against similar schools nationally
- Data analysis tools that Ofsted inspectors and school improvement professionals also use when benchmarking performance
FFT is one of two widely used systems of this kind — CEM's MIDYIS and YELLIS assessments produce similar predictions from their own baseline tests, and some schools use both.
How does FFT calculate a pupil's estimate?
FFT takes the pupil's prior attainment score (most commonly their KS2 SATs result from Year 6) and looks at what grades pupils across England with the same prior score typically achieved at GCSE in previous years. From this national dataset, FFT can produce a statistical estimate — a "likely grade" — for each GCSE subject.
The estimate reflects what is typical, not what is inevitable. A pupil who teaches themselves efficiently, receives excellent teaching, or is highly motivated may outperform their FFT estimate significantly. Equally, a pupil who disengages or faces significant difficulties during KS3 may fall below it.
What do FFT20 and FFT50 mean?
FFT estimates come in several variants, each representing a different level of aspiration:
| FFT band | What it means |
|---|---|
| FFT50 | The grade that 50% of pupils with the same prior attainment achieved or exceeded nationally — the median expectation |
| FFT25 | The grade that 75% of pupils with the same prior attainment achieved or exceeded — an above-average target |
| FFT20 | The grade that 80% of pupils with the same prior attainment achieved or exceeded — an ambitious, high-aspiration target |
| FFT5 | The grade that 95% of pupils with the same prior attainment achieved or exceeded — used by some schools as a "stretch" target |
In practice, most schools set targets using either FFT50 (a realistic median expectation) or FFT20 (an ambitious target that requires pupils to perform in the top fifth of those with similar prior attainment). When a school says it "uses FFT20 targets," it means it has set all pupils a grade that only 20% of similar pupils nationally achieved — deliberately aspirational.
Why might my child's target grade seem too high or too low?
FFT estimates are based entirely on prior attainment data and national averages. They do not account for:
- Changes in a pupil's home environment since primary school
- Undiagnosed learning difficulties or previously unidentified strengths
- Subject-specific talent (a pupil may significantly outperform in a subject they love and underperform in one they find dull)
- The quality of teaching at the specific school (which varies considerably)
- Whether the pupil has had additional tuition, health challenges, or significant personal disruption
Parents should treat FFT estimates as a starting point for a conversation with the school, not as a ceiling or a guarantee. If you believe your child's targets are miscalibrated — either unrealistically high or discouragingly low — ask the class teacher to explain how the target was set and what evidence they are using from their own classroom observations.
How do schools use FFT data beyond individual target grades?
Beyond setting targets for individual pupils, schools use FFT data in several ways:
- Self-evaluation: comparing their actual GCSE results against FFT-predicted outcomes to judge whether pupils made better, expected, or weaker progress
- Identifying gaps by group: checking whether specific groups of pupils (for example, Pupil Premium eligible pupils, boys, pupils with SEND) are performing below FFT predictions — and by how much
- Preparing for Ofsted: inspectors use FFT benchmarking to assess whether a school's outcomes represent good value added, independently of headline results
- Strategic planning: school leaders use FFT trend data to identify subjects or year groups where teaching may need strengthening
What should parents do with FFT target grades on a report?
When you see an FFT-derived target on a report, a few practical steps make it useful:
- Ask which FFT band the school uses — an FFT20 target is more demanding than an FFT50
- Compare the target to the teacher's current assessment grade — a significant gap between current grade and target warrants a conversation
- Don't treat the target as the ceiling — FFT estimates describe what is typical; many pupils comfortably exceed them
- Use targets across subjects to identify priority areas — subjects where the gap between current grade and target is largest are the most urgent
Frequently asked questions
Does FFT know my child's individual assessment scores from school?
No. FFT produces estimates based on prior national data and the pupil's KS2 score shared by the school. The detailed in-school assessment data (classwork, homework, internal tests) is held by the school and used by teachers, not by FFT directly. FFT's role is to provide the statistical baseline; teachers' professional judgement applies the context.
Why does my child have a different FFT target in different subjects?
FFT estimates are subject-specific because national outcomes differ by subject. Pupils with a given KS2 score tend to achieve higher grades on average in some subjects than others, partly reflecting the different demands and grade distributions of each GCSE. A pupil with a high KS2 score in reading may have a higher FFT prediction in English than in, say, Geography, even if the subject demands are comparable.
Can FFT targets change between Year 7 and Year 11?
Yes. Schools typically update targets as new baseline assessment data becomes available — for example, after administering MIDYIS or YELLIS assessments, or based on internal mock results. A target set in Year 7 based purely on KS2 data may be revised upward or downward by Year 10 once the school has three years of its own assessment evidence.
What should I do if I think the FFT target is unfairly low?
Speak to the head of year or subject teacher, and ask them to explain the basis of the target and what evidence from the child's work in school informs it. A target that diverges significantly from teacher observation and internal test performance should be reconsidered. Schools are not required to use FFT estimates unchanged — the data is a tool, not a mandate.
For personalised AI tutoring targeted at where your child actually is rather than a statistical estimate, see aitutors.me.