Understanding GCSE Predicted Grades: A Guide for Parents and Students

A GCSE predicted grade is a teacher's estimate of the grade a student is likely to achieve in a final GCSE examination, based on their current performance. Predicted grades are used internally by schools, for sixth-form and college applications, and — in exceptional circumstances — as the basis for awarded grades. Understanding how they work helps students and parents make sense of school reports and plan effectively.

What is a predicted grade and when is it used?

A predicted grade is an estimate, not a guarantee. Schools generate predicted grades at various points during Year 10 and Year 11, and they are used in several contexts:

Sixth-form and college applications (Year 11): When students apply for A-level or BTEC courses, sixth forms and FE colleges typically ask for predicted grades alongside an application. A predicted grade of 5 or above in relevant subjects is commonly required for competitive A-level courses.

School tracking and intervention: Teachers and pastoral teams use predicted grades to identify students at risk of underperforming and to target additional support.

University conditional offers (for early applicants): This mainly applies to students who go on to apply to university, where A-level predicted grades feature prominently — the GCSE prediction is a stepping stone to that system.

Awarded grades (exceptional circumstances): In 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, GCSE exams were cancelled and Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs) — which relied heavily on teacher predictions — were used to award final grades. This was exceptional; under normal circumstances, final GCSE grades are determined solely by examination performance.

How do teachers calculate predicted grades?

There is no single national formula for calculating predicted GCSE grades. Different schools use different approaches, and teachers have professional discretion. Common approaches include:

In-class and mock exam performance. The most important input is usually how a student performs in formal assessments: in-class tests, end-of-term exams, and especially mock examinations in Year 11. Mock exams in November and March of Year 11 are often the most heavily weighted data point, because they most closely resemble the actual examination.

Standardised assessment data (e.g. CATs, MidYIS). Many schools use standardised assessments in Year 7 or Year 9 — such as Cognitive Abilities Tests (CATs) or the Cambridge CEM MidYIS — to generate baseline predictions. These are statistical models that predict likely GCSE outcomes based on a student's cognitive profile. Schools may use these alongside teacher judgement.

Classroom performance and teacher judgement. Teachers observe how students respond to questions, their quality of written work, their ability to apply knowledge independently, and their approach to revision. These qualitative factors influence predictions alongside data.

Typical KS2 to GCSE progression data. Some schools use national data on the expected progress from a student's Key Stage 2 SATs results to GCSE outcomes as a benchmark.

The result is that predicted grades are inherently imprecise. Research published by Cambridge Assessment (part of Cambridge University Press and Assessment) found that teacher predictions are correct to within one grade approximately 50–60% of the time for most subjects, with predictions more likely to overestimate than underestimate final outcomes. For high-attaining students, predictions that are one grade below actual results are also common.

How accurate are predicted grades?

The short answer is: moderately accurate, but not reliably so. Predictions tend to be most accurate for students performing consistently at a clear level, and least accurate for students at the boundaries between grades or with inconsistent performance across tests.

Several factors mean predictions can diverge significantly from final results:

Factor | Direction of divergence
Student improves significantly after mocks | Actual result higher than prediction
Student underperforms under exam conditions | Actual result lower than prediction
Prediction based on very limited assessment data (Year 10 only) | Higher uncertainty; either direction
Subject where coursework element heavily weighted | Prediction more accurate if coursework is strong

The 2020–2021 pandemic grades highlighted the limitations of predicted grades at scale: when Centre Assessed Grades were used as the sole basis for results, significant grade inflation occurred in many subjects, suggesting that predictions are systematically optimistic for a portion of students.

What should you do if your predicted grade seems wrong?

If a predicted grade seems too low or is causing concern, there are constructive steps to take.

Talk to the subject teacher. Ask what evidence the prediction is based on and what you would need to do to achieve a higher grade. Most teachers are willing to explain their reasoning and to revise a prediction if performance improves before it is submitted. The key question to ask is: "What specific things should I focus on to improve from where I am now?"

Focus on the factors within your control. Predicted grades are a snapshot. The only grade that matters is the one you receive in summer — and that is determined by your performance in the examination room. Students who significantly improve their preparation between mock exams and final exams often outperform their predictions.

Understand the sixth-form application context. If a predicted grade is preventing you from applying for a course, speak to the school's Head of Year or careers advisor about how to approach the application. Some sixth forms will consider contextual information, a personal statement, or an interview alongside predicted grades.

Do not assume a low prediction is a ceiling. A predicted grade of 4 is not a statement about your potential — it is an estimate based on current evidence. With focused revision over several months, the gap between a predicted 4 and a final 6 is entirely achievable.

Predicted grades vs target grades vs aspirational grades

Schools sometimes use different types of grades that can be confusing:

Predicted grade: what your teacher currently estimates you will achieve, based on evidence

Target grade: a benchmark grade calculated from your prior attainment (often from KS2 SATs or Year 7 CATs), representing expected progress

Aspirational grade: sometimes called a "stretch grade," this is the grade you might achieve with strong effort and performance above expected levels

None of these three is your final grade. They are tools for planning and conversation, not outcomes. Students who understand this distinction can use all three productively — rather than feeling defined by any one of them.

Frequently asked questions

Do predicted grades go to universities?

Predicted grades at GCSE level are not usually sent directly to universities in the way that A-level predicted grades are (which feature in UCAS applications). However, GCSE grades (both predicted, for sixth-form entry, and actual, for university entry) are an important part of the educational trajectory. Most universities set minimum GCSE requirements — commonly a grade 5 or 6 in Maths and English — as part of their A-level offer conditions.

Can a predicted grade be changed before the final exam?

Yes. In most schools, predicted grades are updated at several points throughout Year 10 and Year 11 — typically after each major assessment or mock exam cycle. If your performance improves significantly after a prediction is set, speak to your subject teacher about whether it can be revised. Schools generally want predictions to be as accurate as possible, and a teacher who has seen a clear improvement in your work will usually be willing to update their estimate.

What happens if my final GCSE grade is very different from my predicted grade?

If your final grade is higher than predicted, this is excellent news — you have outperformed expectations, and it opens doors that the predicted grade may have seemed to close. If your final grade is lower than predicted, you have several options: resitting the exam (GCSEs in Maths and English Language can be retaken in November), reapplying for sixth-form places with a revised offer, or speaking to a careers advisor about alternative pathways. In either case, the final grade — not the predicted one — is what goes on your permanent record and is used by employers and universities.

How much should I worry about my predicted grades in Year 10?

Year 10 predictions carry less weight than Year 11 predictions, which are based on more substantial evidence including mock exams. In Year 10, your focus should be on building strong subject knowledge and good study habits — the grade will follow. Year 11 mock results in the autumn term are usually the most important data point for school-submitted predictions, so that is when consistent, well-prepared performance matters most for the prediction. However, the final summer exams are always the only grade that truly counts.

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